Global warming, greenhouse effect, extreme weather, smog ... Every word is like a heavy hammer, striking human fragile civilization from time to time. In the face of the severe "climate change" situation, reducing the emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases has become an inevitable choice to deal with the "dilemma". The use of market mechanisms to promote energy conservation and emissions reduction and respond to climate change has always been the keynote of my country's policy. Following the launch of the national unified carbon trading market at the end of 2017, the energy-saving and emission-reduction market chemical industry is expected to usher in a "new army"-carbon futures.
Market-oriented tools welcome the "new army"
The Guangzhou Futures Exchange (hereinafter referred to as the "Canton Exchange"), which has received much attention, has recently made new progress after many years. On October 12, He Xiaojun, party secretary and director of the Guangdong Provincial Local Financial Supervision Administration, said at the "Eighth Lingnan Forum": "The Canton Exchange has solicited opinions from the departments and it is estimated that it may be approved before the end of this year. The first futures exchange to be released by the China Securities Regulatory Commission in 2010 has been related to green and carbon emissions. "
Once the news that the Canton Stock Exchange was about to land, carbon trading was once again a hot topic in the industry. The so-called carbon trading refers to the carbon dioxide emission rights as a commodity, thus forming a carbon dioxide emission rights trading, referred to as carbon trading. According to the arrangements of the "Paris Agreement", the world is facing enormous pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. To implement carbon emission reductions, a variety of carbon trading markets have been established globally. At the end of 2017, the national unified carbon emission trading market was officially launched. According to estimates by the World Bank, the total amount of global carbon emissions trading is expected to reach 3.5 trillion US dollars by 2020, which will surpass the oil market and become the largest energy trading market, while China will become the world's largest carbon emissions trading market.
As the saying goes: "Good things happen." The reporter of the Futures Daily learned that Guangzhou is one of the earliest cities in the development of the futures industry in the country. In September 1992, the country's first futures brokerage company was established. In 1993, the South China Commodity Futures Exchange and the Guangzhou Commodity Futures Exchange. However, in the clean-up and rectification of the national futures industry that began in 1996, the two exchanges were shut down and banned. In 2015, Guangzhou ushered in the dawn of the establishment of a futures exchange. The State Council issued the "China (Guangdong) Free Trade Pilot Zone Overall Plan" to study and establish an innovative futures exchange with carbon emissions as the first variety in Guangzhou. In 2017, an official from Guangzhou stated that it would complete the establishment of the Canton Stock Exchange this year, but then it will sink into the sea.
Fighting to the stars, on February 18, 2019, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the "Outline of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Development Plan" to "support" the establishment of a futures exchange in Guangzhou and support the construction of a green finance reform and innovation pilot zone in Guangzhou. Carbon emissions are the first variety of innovative futures exchanges. As soon as this news came out, it aroused people's expectation of the Canton Stock Exchange, and also accelerated the landing process of the Canton Stock Exchange. In an interview with the Futures Daily reporter, Song Xiangqing, vice chairman of the China Business Economics Association, said: "The Canton Exchange ’s plan to launch carbon emissions trading by the end of the year is another new measure for China to fully implement the Paris Agreement and further establish China ’s image as a responsible power. At the same time, it will inevitably further promote China's energy conservation, emission reduction and innovative development, which has important practical significance for international cooperation and domestic development. "
Accelerating the establishment of a trading market for energy use rights, emission rights and carbon emission rights is an important institutional innovation that uses market mechanisms to control and reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote the green and low-carbon transformation of economic development. Important policy tool for arranging commitments. From the first international climate negotiations in 1991, the signing of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1992, to the signing of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, the conclusion of the “Paris Road Map” in 2007, the signing of the Copenhagen Agreement in 2009, and then The Paris Agreement was signed in 2015 ... China has always been a contributor and participant in the global response to climate change.
The reporter consulted the information and learned that in 2018, China's unit GDP carbon dioxide emissions decreased by 45.8% compared with 2005, exceeding the target of the year, which was equivalent to reducing CO2 emissions by 5.26 billion tons. In the same year, non-fossil energy accounted for 14.3% of primary energy consumption, and the forest stock increased by 4.56 billion cubic meters over 2005. Since 2000, about a quarter of the new green area in the world has come from China. In 2018, China's new energy vehicles increased by 1.25 million units, which is far ahead in the world ... At present, energy conservation and emission reduction has an additional tool that uses market mechanisms to solve problems, and continuously releases "positive energy" for China. Adding bricks and tiles makes people look forward to.
The foundation is not strong and worries
Futures and spot are a pair of brothers, and the relationship is inseparable. Before the advent of carbon futures, there were already brothers in the spot who were searching for ways to use market-oriented mechanisms to save energy and reduce emissions. In 2011, in accordance with the requirements of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" on "gradually establishing a carbon emissions trading market", China launched carbon emissions trading in 6 provinces (municipalities), including Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing, Hubei, Guangdong, and Shenzhen pilot work. As of the end of June this year, the seven pilot carbon markets covered nearly 3,000 key emission units in various industries such as power, steel, and cement. The cumulative transaction volume exceeded 330 million tons, and the cumulative transaction amount was approximately 7.1 billion yuan. Prominent and emerging local carbon market.
At the end of 2017, the national unified carbon emission trading market was officially launched, and relevant market entities including carbon exchanges, emission control enterprises, carbon asset management enterprises, carbon verification / inspection enterprises, and energy conservation and environmental protection enterprises benefited. Prior to this, the parties have formed a huge emerging industry involving various industries and fields through many years of "horse racing". According to incomplete statistics from the Futures Daily reporter, there are more than 20 environmental exchanges that have been established in China, and almost all of them are aimed at one goal-carbon emissions trading, and the business types and development models are roughly the same.
Today, the higher the voice of carbon futures, the future of the two brothers how to coordinate development has become the focus of attention. In response to this, a reporter from the Futures Daily found that through contacting a number of carbon trading pilots, industry insiders are also a bit worried when they look forward to the listing of carbon futures. Among them, a senior executive of a carbon emission rights pilot unit has the most distinct views. He told a reporter of the Futures Daily: "The introduction of carbon futures is very important, which is the standard for China's futures to mature. But for now, the basis for the introduction of carbon futures The conditions are not mature. Although the national unified carbon trading market has been launched for nearly two years, trading has not started, and the construction work undertaken by the pilots is still being implemented. Spot is the foundation of futures, and it is rushed when the spot market foundation is not mature. It feels awkward to launch carbon futures. "
"The immaturity of the carbon trading spot market is manifested in many ways." The person said that at present, the carbon emissions trading system only incorporates an electric power industry. From the experience of the pilot, the trading volume of the carbon spot market will be very small and the liquidity is far Not as good as commodities, the liquidity of transactions can only be guaranteed when all eight industries are included. At present, the system and supporting system for a unified national carbon emissions trading market are under construction. It took five or six years for the seven pilots to continuously improve the system, but so far a unified system environment has not been established, and the "Interim Regulations on the Management of Carbon Emissions Trading" are still on the way. The carbon emissions trading market is different from commodities. It is a market created by policy demand. Therefore, the price and policy are relatively related. When the system construction is not perfect, policy changes will cause dramatic price fluctuations, thereby inducing market risks. .
The person said that the carbon spot and the futures market are divided into different competent authorities. The spot is under the responsibility of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, and the futures is under the responsibility of the China Securities Regulatory Commission. This may lead to different departments having different prices for carbon market functions, resulting in "contradictions" . The Ministry of Ecology and Environment mainly considers climate change and international negotiations, while the CSRC focuses on price discovery and hedging. When carbon trading approaches the delivery date, the prices of the spot and futures markets should be close, but due to the different considerations of the two competent authorities, different prices will be produced for each other.
Facing the concerns of people in the carbon spot market, Song Xiangqing believes that in terms of the development of the carbon trading industry and the law of the spot market, the futures market should generally be formed on the premise that the development of the spot market reaches a certain level and has solid spot market support. As far as China's current spot market is concerned, it is objectively immature, which is manifested by the small variety of transactions, the small scale of transactions, the lack of flexibility in transaction prices, the outstanding policies and human factors, and the insufficient market leading role. In this case Therefore, listed carbon futures can only be said to have a basis and no guarantee.
In terms of the carbon trading industry, Song Xiangqing said that the futures market may stimulate and promote the accelerated development of the spot market. However, when the spot market moves forward, due to the different ownership of the competent authorities, it may lead to price confusion, confusion of subjects, and misalignment of the theme. The speculative problems in the carbon trading industry have become prominent, which has dampened the enthusiasm of the carbon trading industry. It requires relevant departments to make assessments in advance and make preventive response plans.
Finally, Song Xiangqing said that overall, the formation of a carbon trading futures market in Guangzhou before the end of the year is in line with national strategies and international expectations, and is also conducive to the overall deployment of China ’s economic and social development, but it does face the possibility of being brought about by a weak spot market foundation. Problems and hidden dangers, and how to plan ahead will become the key to testing the wisdom of relevant departments.
